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Turkey announces "transformational" Black Sea gas find

Turkey's President Erdogan has announced the discovery of what he called the biggest discovery of natural gas in its history in the Black Sea.

Mr Erdogan described the new field in an exploration zone in the western Black Sea as opening the possibility ofunprecedented wealth, which may clear Turkey's long-standing energy dependence on neighbouring Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.

This reserve is actually part of a much bigger source. God willing, much more will come he told party colleagues at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul,“... we look to the future with more security now. There will be no stopping until we become a net exporter in energy.

Market analysts have described the development as potentially transformational for Turkey, which remains embroiled in an ongoing dispute with Greece over a separate gas exploration exercise in the eastern Mediterranean.

Even if the official 320 billion cubic metre figure. is an estimate, this is Turkey's biggest-ever find by a wide margin, and one of the largest global discoveries of the year, said Thomas Purdie of wood Mackenzie.

President Erdogan says he hopes delivery may begin as soon as 2023, the year that marks the centenary of the signing of the Treaty of Lausanne which brought the modern Turkish state into existence. But caution has been raised over the timescale.

Reaping the supply rewards will be complex and a 2023 date looks ambitious. Mr Purdie added.

Any future development would cost billions of dollars. Deepwater projects are complex in any environment, but the Black Sea poses additional logistical challenges that must be managed.”

Other Turkish analysts, however, have given a muted response to the announcement.

It's helpful but not a game-changer, said Fadi Hakura, head of the Turkey programme at Chatham House.

We may find over time that this headline figure falls. The estimates are based on seismic data and not drilling. We have seen previous examples like in Lebanon where in time the figures went downward, Mr Hakkura added.

The announcement had little impact on the value of the lira which by mid-afternoon was trading at 7.3 TRY to the dollar, continuing a slide which has seen the currency lose a fifth of its value to the greenback this year. Despite the news, currency experts say the outlook for the lira remains flat.

The gas find is a boost for Turkey but it all depends on how the central bank acts, what will they do on interest rates and the trade deficit, also there are big geopolitical issues regarding Turkey's dispute with Greece, these are the real issues, said macroeconomist Cornelia Meyer of the Meyer Resources consultancy.

In a live press conference, President Erdogan handed over to his son-in-law, finance minister Berat Albayrak, on the deck of the exploratory ship the Fatih, which has been leading the search off Turkey's northern coast.

Albayrak announced that the discovery was of such significance that Turkey was no longer required to post its current account deficit, an announcement that has caused alarm in some quarters.

Trying to hide the current account deficit is one of the reasons for the depreciation of the lira, Fadi Hakura said, pointing to the $60bn that Goldman Sachs estimates Turkish banks have spent propping up the value of the lira so far this year.

Lack of published data has eroded confidence further. If (the ministry) refuses to publish the numbers it will have the opposite effect to that intended, and the markets will be more brutal on the lira.

(CGTN)

World News